Monitoring the self-driving automotive innovation course of: California AV permits

Since 2014, many corporations have utilized in California for testing self-driving vehicles. The rules of corporations which have obtained a allow might be utilized as a measure for the innovation course of related to autonomous automotive expertise. The graph beneath reveals how the variety of corporations vigorous in California has solely elevated steadily from 2014 to the third quarter of 2016. A steep improve follows in 2017. The slope softens all through the primary half of 2018.

In the end it might be untimely to conclude that we’re already seeing the start of the best of the S-curve which is so typical for innovation processes. And the California AV permits can solely be seen as a proxy for the bigger distributed self-driving automotive innovation course of at present unfolding internationally.

 

However neither the variety of California AV permits nor the variety of corporations offering self-driving automotive decisions will develop indefinitely. The time will come the place the enterprise strikes into the subsequent half, the place the exploratory modes of improvement will more than likely be modified by further systematic, managerial approaches and the place commercialization might be the first focus. A shakeout is inevitable. Time can also be determining for lots of who nonetheless need to leap onto the self-driving automotive observe…

Notes:
– 58 permits have been issued by the best of June 2018; One allow has not been renewed (Uber), making it 57 vigorous permits.

Updates:

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-2018-11-18: By the best of October 2018, the variety of vigorous permits elevated to 60.

– 2018-09-07: By the best of August 2018, Mando America Agency obtained a allow, rising the variety of vigorous permits to 56.

– 2018-08-07: By the best of July 2018, 2 corporations didn’t renew their permits (Wheego Electrical and Bauer’s Clever Transportation) reducing the variety of vigorous permits to 55.